My best-case scenario for this year's election? Bush is Nixon.
I still would put money on Bush winning the election, and possibly by a significant margin. We're just too crazy right now to get off this horse. We're too afraid, and we've endured entirely too much cognitive dissonance to change course now. (He's a great President! He protects us! The economy is getting better! He's not book-smart, but who wants that? He's honest. He's compassionate. His advisers know what they're doing. Deficits don't matter. Iraq was necessary. He held a bullhorn at Ground Zero!)
Still, I have a sneaking suspicion that in his second term, Bush's house of cards will come tumbling down. Plame, Halliburton, Abu Ghraib, Iraq, deficits, TANG coverup - not to mention 12 other scandals I can't think of right at the moment - will finally collapse the shaky foundation of this administration. Of course, that would mean focusing on Bush's implosion for months or years, and not dealing with the real problems this nation faces. But we should be used to that by now. (John Kerry looks French!)
At this point, Bush could still stab a small girl in the neck on live national TV and suffer no ill effects. But how long can his luck hold? All it will take is for a modest amount of people to wake up from their 9/11 comas, and buh-bye, Mr. President.
One can hope.